Do former smokers get more lung cancer?

The anti-smoker brigade issues press releases on a regular basis. Over the last couple of years, for example, they've announced a series of studies which purported to show that smoking bans immediately reduce hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease.

Widely distributed and highly publicized by the press, these studies, more often than not, are rather quickly shown to be sadly lacking in scientific integrity. But, the criticisms of these studies by knowledgeable experts are seldom reported in the mainstream media. So, the anti-smoker fanatics are free to continue their campaign of deceit and deception without fear of censure in the press.

For a prime example of what I'm talking about, check out this blog entry by anti-smoking activist Dr. Michael Siegel and his critique of the latest miracle study from Toronto, Canada. And, you can read more about these miracle studies on my Dec 10, 2009 blog entry.

But, let's look at some other facts about smoking and smoking related deaths that will never make headlines. Like the analysis critical of the smoking ban miracle studies, they're hidden away on obscure websites and blogs and scientific journals which the general public seldom reads.

For instance, an organization called the Lung Cancer Alliance claims that over 60% of all new lung cancer cases are among former smokers and those who have never smoked. “Over 60% of new cases are never smokers or former smokers, many of whom quit decades ago.”

In fact, they have a nice little chart on their page which breaks it down. It claims that current smokers account for 35% of new lung cancer cases, former smokers 50% and never smokers 15%.

Imagine. More former smokers are being diagnosed with (and presumably dying from) lung cancer than current smokers. I say “presumably dying” because, according to the Lung Cancer Alliance: “The majority of lung cancer patients are being diagnosed so late that they will die within a year.”

That's quite a startling revelation. It's easy to understand why the anti-smoker crowd and their allies in the press corps would hesitate to make that information available to the general public. Because it suggests that quitting the habit is no defense against lung cancer. In fact, if 50% of new lung cancers are found in former smokers, that, in turn, suggests that former smokers are at greater risk of developing lung cancer than smokers.

The same website claims there are over 40 million smokers in the US and over 45 million former smokers. And, if 50% of new lung cancer cases are among the 45 million who quit, and only 35% of new cases are among the 40 million who continue to smoke, well . . . you don't have to be a math major to figure it out.

Let's assume that the number of new lung cancer cases will correlate to actual lung cancer deaths. This is not an unreasonable assumption since only 15% of lung cancer patients survive more that five years, and as noted by the Lung Cancer Alliance “The majority of lung cancer patients . . . will die within a year.”

There are approximately 160,000 deaths from lung cancer every year in the US. If 35% of lung cancer deaths are among current smokers, that's 56,000 lung cancer deaths. There would be 80,000 deaths among former smokers (50% of 160,000). Therefore, former smokers are at a higher risk of developing lung cancer and dying from that dread disease than current smokers.

These are not precision numbers, but I believe they are sufficiently accurate to illustrate my point. And, to re-emphasize my point, according to the figures provided by Lung Cancer Alliance, more former smokers than current smokers will contract lung cancer and eventually die from that disease.

But, the anti-smoker crowd has been telling us for decades that the only way for smokers to escape lung cancer and other smoking related diseases, is to quit using the foul smelling weed. So, what gives?

Up here in the Great White North, Health Canada is very careful about disclosing the number of smokers, former smokers or non-smokers who die from lung cancer. Instead, they claim that 88.6% of lung cancers among males, and 62.5 among females, are attributed to smoking. Is there some legitimate reason that Health Canada lumps them all together, obscuring the number of smokers and former smokers allegedly dying from lung cancer?

I know what you're thinking. Does it really matter if more former smoker than current smokers die from lung cancer? After all, if you add up the numbers, that still means that 85% of lung cancers are caused by smoking.

And, if you believe the statistics from the anti-smoker crowd, you'd be correct. Unfortunately, I've become very cynical about all statistics provided by the fanatics. When it comes to smoking, they seem to ignore even the most basic principles of science and statistical analysis.

In this case, it's something called “reversible association”. In other words, if the ``cause'' is removed (e.g. people stop smoking) the proportions contracting the disease should reduce. And, smoking rates have been declining steadily for the past 45 years, while lung cancer rates have been mysteriously increasing.

Don't you just love a mystery?